Tag: Systems Thinking

  • If Integrity Requires Heroism, the System Is Already Broken

    If Integrity Requires Heroism, the System Is Already Broken

    Robert Coram’s biographies praise people who chose principle over career. They also expose a failure that should scare all of us:

    Too many institutions need exceptional courage to hear ordinary truth.

    In 1967, Lieutenant General Victor “Brute” Krulak went to the White House with an argument President Lyndon Johnson did not want to hear.

    The United States was prosecuting the Vietnam War through search-and-destroy operations and attrition. Krulak believed the decisive contest was for the security and allegiance of the people living in South Vietnam’s villages. The Marines could and should fight large enemy formations, he argued, but destroying units and counting bodies would not by itself defeat an insurgency.

    Robert Coram reconstructs what happened next in Brute, his biography of Krulak. According to that account, Krulak told Johnson that American strategy was producing unnecessary casualties and that responsibility reached the top of the government, “including you, Mr. President.” If the president did not change course, Krulak warned, he would lose the war and the next election.

    Johnson rose, placed a hand on Krulak’s shoulder, and ushered him out without another word.

    Lieutenant General Victor “Brute” Krulak in uniform against a cream, charcoal, and brass editorial background.
    Lt. Gen. Victor H. Krulak.
    Cover of Brute by Robert Coram.
    Brute by Robert Coram.

    Coram argues that the confrontation helped cost Krulak a fourth star and the job he wanted most: Commandant of the Marine Corps. Johnson later selected another Marine. Krulak retired as a three-star in 1968.

    It would be too easy to turn the scene into a polished parable in which a truth-teller confronts a villain, pays the price, and is vindicated by history. Coram’s biographies, however, preserve achievement, ambition, contradiction, collateral damage, and uncertainty in the same frame.

    The easy lesson in Krulak’s story is that leaders should admire moral courage. The harder lesson is that a president responsible for a war needed the information Krulak carried. Why did delivering it have to resemble a career-ending act of heroism?

    The fork in the road tests more than character

    When I interviewed Coram for The Unfolding Thought Podcast, he explained what he had looked for in the military figures he chose to write about. He wanted people who reached a fork in the road, did what they believed was right, and paid a price.

    Robert Coram in a dark suit and round glasses against a cream, charcoal, and brass editorial background.
    Robert Coram.

    That is a powerful test of character.

    A moral fork tells us what a person does when duty, self-interest, loyalty, and fear point in different directions. It reveals something that no résumé, values statement, or performance review can. Coram found versions of that test in Krulak; in fighter pilot and military theorist John Boyd; and, at an almost unimaginable physical extreme, in Medal of Honor recipient and Vietnam prisoner of war George E. “Bud” Day.

    But the fork can also reveal something about the road builder and not just the traveler.

    When people must repeatedly choose between doing good work and preserving a viable career, the institution is not merely discovering their character. It is manufacturing the conflict. It is making personal courage compensate for defects in how information travels, how authority responds, and how careers are governed.

    Some moral choices will remain costly in any organization worth serving. No process can make courage unnecessary. But when routine truth-telling predictably requires career-threatening heroism, the price is no longer just evidence of the employee’s virtue. It is a leadership metric.

    A heroic culture can still be a silent culture

    Organizations often talk about candor as if it were a personality trait:

    • Good employees speak up.
    • Courageous leaders welcome bad news.
    • Weak people stay quiet.

    Decades of organizational research describe a more relational problem. New York University professor Elizabeth Morrison defines upward voice as employees voluntarily communicating suggestions, concerns, or information about problems to people higher in the hierarchy.

    Silence is not the absence of information. It is the withholding of information that may already exist somewhere lower in the system.

    That means a quiet meeting is ambiguous. Everyone may agree. Or the people who disagree may have decided that the cost of speaking is not worth paying.

    In a study of 3,149 employees and 223 managers, James Detert and Ethan Burris found that managerial openness was more consistently related to improvement-oriented voice than transformational leadership was. Employees’ sense of psychological safety helped explain the relationship. The effect of leader behavior was especially strong among high performers, the very people an organization can least afford to train into silence.

    The point is not that every leader must be gentle or that every employee must feel comfortable. Psychological safety, as Amy Edmondson originally defined it, is a shared belief that a team is safe for interpersonal risk-taking. It makes learning behaviors such as asking for help, reporting mistakes, and challenging an assumption more possible. It does not make every assertion correct, remove performance standards, or exempt anyone from the consequences of deliberate misconduct.

    Coram’s account of Krulak contains a small scene that makes the larger problem visible. During a visit to Vietnam, Krulak asked Marines what they thought. They gave him answers he did not expect and did not like. Afterward, he asked his son, Navy chaplain Victor Krulak, what was wrong with the battalion.

    His son suggested that people elsewhere might have been telling the general what he wanted to hear.

    Coram writes that the possibility appeared not to have occurred to Krulak, even though Krulak himself knew that subordinates often manage what senior officers see.

    This does not diminish the courage Krulak later showed with Johnson. It makes the case more valuable. The same person can be unusually willing to carry unwelcome truth upward and still make it difficult for truth to travel upward to him.

    Candor is not secured by placing one brave person in the hierarchy. It has to survive every level of the hierarchy.

    “To be or to do” is both a challenge and an indictment

    John Boyd made the decision point explicit.

    Coram’s Boyd follows the fighter pilot from the cockpit to the Aerial Attack Study, energy-maneuverability theory, the F-15 and F-16 development battles, and the body of work later associated with the OODA loop. Boyd’s accomplishments depended on extraordinary concentration, technical insight, a network of allies, and an appetite for conflict that often made him nearly impossible to ignore and just as difficult to manage.

    John Boyd in flight gear against a cream, charcoal, and brass editorial background.
    Col. John Boyd.
    Cover of Boyd by Robert Coram.
    Boyd by Robert Coram.

    He divided officers into people who wanted “to be” somebody and people who wanted “to do” something.

    Coram shows Boyd applying that test to Air Force officer James Burton. Burton had refused an order to alter a chart comparing aircraft performance because the alteration would create a lie. He was removed from his Pentagon job and passed over for promotion. Boyd told him he had reached a fork: he could pursue the promotion and its trappings, or continue the work he believed was right. He could not, Boyd said, have a normal career and do the good work.

    As a moral challenge, “to be or to do” draws a clear line. As an organizational condition, it should be alarming.

    Why should a normal career and good work be incompatible?

    What information will never reach a decision-maker if the price is obvious before anyone speaks?

    How many capable employees will make the sensible choice, protect their families and futures, and leave the unaltered chart in a drawer?

    This is where hero stories can mislead managers. We admire the outlier who accepts the sacrifice and then quietly build systems that assume the next person will do the same. When the next person does not, we call it a character failure rather than asking what the incentives were designed to produce.

    Boyd also shows why an institution cannot simply reward combativeness. He could be brilliant, abrasive, domineering, and wrong. His crusades imposed costs on colleagues and family members who did not choose them.

    An organization that depends on finding a hero is fragile. A stronger one preserves the function Boyd and men like him serve: challenging assumptions, demanding evidence, and testing doctrine, without requiring every reformer to become him.

    Coram’s exception protects the argument from hero worship

    Coram told me that one of his four military subjects did not fit his moral-fork rule: World War II fighter pilot Robert Lee Scott Jr.

    Brigadier General Robert Lee Scott Jr. in Air Force dress uniform against a cream, charcoal, and brass editorial background.
    Brig. Gen. Robert Lee Scott Jr.
    Cover of Double Ace by Robert Coram.
    Double Ace by Robert Coram.

    Scott was a real combat pilot and a double ace. He flew guest missions with pilots of the American Volunteer Group, the original Flying Tigers, and later commanded the regular Army Air Forces’ 23rd Fighter Group. His 1943 memoir, God Is My Co-Pilot, became a bestseller and then a film. He also told stories so fluently and so often that the border between experience, performance, and memory could become difficult to locate.

    Cover of Robert Lee Scott Jr.'s 1943 memoir God Is My Co-Pilot.
    Scott’s 1943 memoir, God Is My Co-Pilot.

    In one late version of the book’s origin story, Japanese rounds struck Scott’s aircraft from behind and drove rivets from the armor behind his seat into his back. After landing, he was supposedly operated on without anesthesia in a candlelit cave, where the title appeared to him on the cave wall. Coram found that the cave revelation was absent from the original book, that he could find no injury record, and that Scott had not received a Purple Heart. Those absences do not prove that every element was invented, but they leave the later account without the evidence that should support it.

    Scott matters here because moral courage is not a method for determining truth. Neither sincerity, confidence, sacrifice, nor opposition to authority proves a claim. Institutions need people to raise unwelcome information, and they need disciplined ways to test it.

    Those principles reinforce one another.

    If only safe claims can be voiced,
    evidence is filtered before examination.

    If every contrarian claim is celebrated as brave, dissent becomes theater.

    A serious truth-telling system protects the messenger long enough to evaluate the message.

    What ordinary people usually do at the fork

    The most revealing moral fork in Coram’s body of work may not belong to a pilot or general.

    In his memoir Ink, Coram recalls working in 1959 as an untrained attendant at Georgia’s state mental hospital in Milledgeville. By then, it was less a hospital in the ordinary sense than a vast custodial city. The institution averaged more than 11,800 patients in the late 1950s. It sprawled across roughly 200 buildings and 2,000 acres and, by the 1960s, was described as the largest mental hospital in the world.

    That scale did not produce more care. The New Georgia Encyclopedia records overcrowding, “conscious neglect,” and an institution often able to meet only basic daily needs rather than provide appropriate treatment. In a place that large, abuse could disappear into wards, bureaucracy, and sheer numbers.

    That helps explain the importance of Jack Nelson’s investigation for the Atlanta Constitution. His 1959 reporting documented experimental drugs given without patient or family consent, major surgery performed by a nurse without supervision, and staff and doctors drunk on duty. The series would win the 1960 Pulitzer Prize.

    Cover of Ink by Robert Coram.
    Ink by Robert Coram.

    Coram admired Nelson. He understood that this was what a newspaper could do: enter a closed institution and force powerful people to answer for what happened inside.

    Then, Coram writes, a doctor ordered him to dispose of boxes of medicine to hide them from Nelson’s reporting. Coram believed the labels, dates, and drugs might matter to the investigation. He flushed the pills down a patient toilet, carried the packaging to a dump, and said nothing when the reporter returned.

    He believed the material might be evidence. He recognized the choice. He obeyed the institution anyway.

    “I wanted to help him,” Coram writes. “But I did not.”

    It is tempting to read that sentence as a verdict on the young man. I read it as a warning to anyone who designs work for other people.

    Most employees are not Bud Day. They should not have to be.

    They have mortgages, health insurance, reputations, visas, commissions, pensions, children, and an accurate understanding of what authority can do to them. They watch what happens to the first person who raises a problem. They notice whether the concern is investigated, whether the leader becomes curious or offended, and whether the messenger’s next assignment quietly disappears.

    The employee who remains silent may be making a moral mistake. The organization that makes silence rational is making a management mistake.

    The price rarely stops with the person who speaks

    Coram’s biographies also complicate the idea of individual sacrifice by showing who else pays.

    Bud Day endured five years, seven months, and thirteen days as a prisoner of war, including periods of prolonged torture. Dorie carried that captivity into public life, organized with other POW families, preserved information, kept their household functioning, and later lived beside the physical injuries and recurring nightmares that came home with him. Mary Boyd and her children experienced a different version of cost: absence, volatility, financial strain, and the work required to preserve the ideas for which John Boyd received public credit.

    George E. “Bud” Day in uniform against a cream, charcoal, and brass editorial background.
    Col. George E. “Bud” Day.
    Cover of American Patriot by Robert Coram.
    American Patriot by Robert Coram.

    Those family accounts do not erase Day’s courage or Boyd’s achievements. They complete the ledger.

    We recognize, celebrate, and talk about a few heroes, but the cost of their heroism is paid not only by them. It is also paid by the people around them.

    Organizations usually record the visible price: the stalled promotion, the resignation, the lost command. The cost that migrates into a home, a colleague’s workload, a customer’s risk, or a caregiver’s life often disappears from the scorecard. Calling the employee heroic can become a way of praising a sacrifice the institution has no intention of accounting for.

    Build for candor before you need courage

    Values statements are useful only if the operating system makes them credible. An organization that wants truth before a crisis can build for it in at least six ways.

    1. Give unwelcome information a route around the hierarchy

    An open-door policy still requires an employee to walk through the boss’s door.

    NASA’s Aviation Safety Reporting System was designed around a different insight. Aviation workers can voluntarily report safety incidents to an independent program that keeps identities confidential, removes identifying details, and offers limited protection from penalties for qualifying unintentional violations. Deliberate and criminal acts are not sheltered. The design does not confuse learning with impunity; it reduces the personal risk that prevents useful safety information from entering the system.

    Most organizations do not need a miniature NASA. They do need a channel whose independence, confidentiality, response time, and escalation rules are real rather than decorative.

    2. Make dissent part of the work, not a personality contest

    Do not wait for a natural contrarian to challenge the plan. Assign the function.

    Before commitment, ask one group to assume the decision has failed and construct plausible reasons why. Gary Klein’s premortem works because it gives knowledgeable skeptics permission to voice reservations before failure converts them into hindsight. Rotate the dissent role so that disagreement does not become one person’s identity or one person’s career risk.

    Require the decision owner to state what evidence would change the decision. “Convince me” is not a standard; it is an invitation to contest status. A falsifiable threshold is a standard.

    3. Make the most powerful person speak last

    If the senior leader announces a preference first, every answer that follows has been contaminated by information about what the hierarchy wants.

    Collect judgments independently before discussion when possible. Ask for disconfirming evidence, not just concerns. Replace “Does anyone disagree?” with questions that require content: What assumption is carrying the most risk? What would we expect to see if we are wrong? Who has information that does not fit the current story?

    Then wait long enough for an answer.

    4. Keep a decision record that can survive memory

    Record the decision, material assumptions, competing interpretations, predictions, unresolved concerns, owner, and review date. The purpose is not bureaucratic self-protection. It is to keep the organization from rewriting what it once believed after the outcome is known.

    Scott’s stories show how repetition can harden a satisfying account. A contemporaneous record gives later reviewers something other than confidence and status to examine.

    5. Review outcomes without defending rank

    In my conversation with former Royal Australian Air Force fighter pilot and Afterburner CEO Christian “Boo” Boucousis on The Unfolding Thought Podcast, the debrief was the central subject. Boo described an operating rhythm used after every mission, successful or not: compare the objective with the actual result, identify the cause of any gap, and choose a concrete action for the next mission. His organization applies the same discipline to business teams. The purpose is to convert experience into usable intelligence while keeping rank and ego from controlling the account.

    The simplicity is deceptive. A useful debrief has to remain a professional inquiry rather than a trial, a victory lap, or a briefing in which subordinates discover what the leader wants them to say. Preserve competing accounts. Separate facts from inference. Assign changes and return to see whether they occurred.

    6. Audit what happens to the messenger

    Nonretaliation cannot be measured by counting how many people were formally fired for speaking up. Career penalties are often quieter: a missed invitation, a lower-visibility assignment, exclusion from information, an unexplained performance downgrade, or the conclusion that advancement now lies elsewhere.

    Track whether people who raise consequential concerns remain, advance, and continue to contribute. Ask them what happened after they spoke. Review whether concerns were acknowledged, investigated, and closed. Hold leaders accountable for retaliation and for teaching teams through visible behavior that candor is futile.

    The Government Accountability Office’s recent review of federal disclosure systems reaches a similar practical conclusion: accessible confidential channels, credible protection against retaliation, consistent accountability, and visible leadership commitment all influence whether people trust a speak-up system.

    Moral courage is a virtue. It is not an operating system.

    Coram is right to admire Krulak’s willingness to carry an unwelcome judgment to Johnson. The choice revealed the general’s sense of duty and the relative value he placed on career and country. We need people who will act that way when a consequential truth has no safe route to power.

    But admiration can stop the inquiry too early.

    The leader’s question is not only, Will someone be brave enough to tell me? It is also, What expectations have I created about what happens to people who tell me something I do not want to hear?

    A sound institution cannot remove every moral fork. It can keep routine evidence, doubt, error, and disagreement from becoming tests of personal martyrdom. It can make candor ordinary enough that exceptional courage is reserved for exceptional circumstances.

    When doing the work and keeping a viable career repeatedly point down different roads, the organization has confused a character test with a management system.

    Moral courage is a virtue. It should not be an operating system.

    The episode and sources

  • AI Is Not the Next Printing Press. It May Be the Next Reformation.

    AI Is Not the Next Printing Press. It May Be the Next Reformation.

    AI is not just changing what machines can do. It is changing how we understand our own value, our place in the world, and what it means to be human.

    On Christmas Day in 1521, a communion wafer fell onto the floor of a church in Wittenberg.

    This was not an ordinary Mass. Andreas Karlstadt had come dressed in the clothing of an ordinary person, not the vestments of a priest. He gave laypeople both the bread and the wine and invited them to take Communion even if they had not confessed. Many had not observed the required fast. Some were even said to have drunk brandy. About a thousand people reportedly came to participate in a service that openly broke with the religious practice they had known all their lives.

    Unless you understand the world these people inhabited, those details can sound like minor violations of church etiquette.

    They were not.

    For a Christian in early sixteenth-century Western Europe, the Mass was the moment when a priest did something no ordinary person could do. He consecrated bread and wine. In the inherited theology of transubstantiation, the substance of the bread became the body of Christ while the appearances of bread remained. The wafer still looked and tasted like bread, but worshippers understood themselves to be encountering the real presence of Christ.

    The priest’s vestments marked him as someone set apart for that responsibility. Confession prepared a person to receive the sacrament without approaching God while burdened by unforgiven sin. Fasting prepared the body for the encounter. Laypeople usually received Communion infrequently, often only at Easter. When they did receive it, they ordinarily received only the bread, placed in the mouth by a priest. These practices were not random rules layered around a symbolic meal. They expressed an entire understanding of the relationship between God, the Church, the priest, the body, sin, and salvation.

    Karlstadt challenged almost all of it at once. His ordinary clothing questioned the spiritual difference between a priest and everyone else. Communion without confession rejected the requirement that communicants first seek forgiveness through priestly confession. Eating and drinking beforehand treated the required bodily discipline as unnecessary. Giving the wine to laypeople challenged a practice that had separated priest from congregation for centuries.

    He was not simply asking them to treat the wafer as ordinary bread. At that point, Karlstadt still affirmed Christ’s real presence in Communion. He was asking them to inhabit a new account of who could approach and handle the sacred.

    Then two consecrated wafers fell, one onto a man’s coat and another onto the floor. Karlstadt told the people to pick them up.

    They would not.

    These were not defenders of the old order. They had come because they believed reform was necessary. They were willing to defy the canons of All Saints, inherited ritual, and their own political ruler. Yet touching the Host meant touching what they had spent their lives believing was the body of Christ. That was a boundary their bodies would not let them cross. Karlstadt had to retrieve the wafers himself.1

    Worshippers in a sixteenth-century church hesitate as a communion wafer lies on the floor
    The Christmas Day 1521 service in Wittenberg.

    The people in that church had changed their minds before they had changed their instincts. They were ready to reject the old rules, but not yet ready to touch what those rules had taught them was sacred.

    That is what a real change in worldview looks like. An old system can lose its intellectual authority before it loses its hold on the body.

    This is not another technology

    This is the part of artificial intelligence I think we are missing.

    We keep comparing AI to the printing press, electricity, radio, the internet, and social media. Those technologies did astonishing things. They changed what people could do, how quickly they could do it, how far an idea could travel, who could speak, and how people behaved.

    The crucial word is how. Those technologies also affected identity and meaning, sometimes profoundly. But their central effect was to change how human beings acted in the world. They changed the conditions of life without generally making people across almost every level of society wonder whether human contribution itself was becoming unnecessary.

    AI is becoming a different kind of event because people believe it will not merely change their work. They believe it may eventually do their work better than they can and remove the need for them to do it at all.

    Once that premise takes hold, the questions escalate quickly.

    If AI can perform enough of my work to make my role unnecessary today, or will be able to soon, what is my place in the world? What is my purpose? What am I worth? If work is one of the main ways I contribute to other people, what happens when that contribution no longer requires me? What is a human life for then? Do human beings matter anymore? Do I matter? Will my children?

    Those are not forecasts about what AI will actually accomplish. They are questions people can begin asking as soon as they believe replacement is coming. A life can be reorganized by an expectation before the prediction comes true.

    Machines have threatened jobs before, sometimes on a vast scale. What is distinctive now is that generative AI has carried replacement anxiety into an unusually broad range of occupations built around language, interpretation, judgment, creativity, and leadership. The question can reach a manager, doctor, lawyer, teacher, artist, writer, programmer, executive, or public official in essentially the same form: if the ability that made me useful can be reproduced without me, where does my value now reside?

    AI does not need to replace all of those people for the worldview to begin changing. It only has to make replacement feel plausible.

    That is why I think the Protestant Reformation gives us a better comparison than the printing press.

    I am not saying AI is a religion. I am not saying the twenty-first century will repeat the sixteenth. I am saying both events force people to reconsider a world that had made sense. They destabilize the institutions that explained what was true, who could know it, what made a life valuable, and where an ordinary person fit within the whole.

    The printing press was an extraordinary technology that helped the Reformation spread. The Reformation was the crisis of meaning.

    AI is the technology. The crisis gathering around it is about how we make meaning.

    A world that made sense

    To understand why the Reformation changed so much of western and central Europe so profoundly, we have to begin by taking the world before it seriously.

    Many people in late-medieval Latin Christendom did not merely hold a list of Catholic beliefs. They inhabited a world in which visible and invisible reality were joined.

    The church building made that world physical. A parishioner could look from the ordinary people crowded into the nave, to saints painted on a screen, to the crucified Christ above it, to images of the Last Judgment, heaven, hell, and purgatory. Beyond the screen, at the altar, the priest brought Christ into the church in the consecrated bread. Diarmaid MacCulloch describes this as a floor-to-ceiling account of the Christian story. Creation, sin, suffering, death, judgment, and eternal life were not ideas discussed somewhere else. They surrounded a person while that person stood in church.2

    The same system organized life outside the building. Church bells marked the day. Fasts, feasts, Advent, Lent, Easter, and Christmas gave the year its shape. Baptism brought an infant into the Christian community. Confession and penance addressed sin. Church law helped govern marriage, sex, and inheritance. Guilds, monasteries, and confraternities joined work, charity, status, and prayer.

    Purgatory offered an account of what happened to the saved who still needed to be purified after death. Masses, prayers, alms, pilgrimages, relics, and indulgences gave the living something meaningful to do for parents, spouses, children, and friends who had died. A family paying for a Mass was not simply purchasing a service from a church. Within that world, the family was still caring for someone it loved.

    This was why the Church mattered. It did not merely tell people what to believe on Sunday. It explained where the dead had gone, why suffering existed, how guilt could be forgiven, which work was holy, who had authority, how time should be lived, and what a human life was for.

    That system was neither uniform nor peaceful. Clergy could be corrupt. Popes pursued money and power. Local practices varied, and reform movements long predated Luther. Still, the late-medieval Church was not an empty shell waiting for one brave man to expose it. It met real spiritual needs. Even its abuses drew power from needs people genuinely felt.

    That was true of indulgences. An indulgence addressed punishment for sins already forgiven. Within the larger account of confession, penance, and purgatory, it made sense. An indulgence campaign connected fear for the dead with papal authority, local politics, banking, and the financing of St. Peter’s Basilica in Rome.3

    When Luther challenged the indulgence campaign in 1517, he pulled on a thread connected to almost everything.

    At first, he was arguing about repentance, grace, punishment, and pastoral care. He was not yet presenting a complete new church. But the disagreement could not remain narrow because his opponents eventually made authority the issue. If the pope and the accumulated teaching of the Church supported the practice, what right did a provincial friar have to contradict them?

    That question forced another: what if the pope was wrong?

    Then another: what if a church council could be wrong?

    Then another: what if the practices through which Christians had sought forgiveness, cared for the dead, distinguished holy lives, and understood salvation were not merely imperfect, but based on a fundamental error?

    The controversy stopped being about the proper use of indulgences. It became an argument about who could say how reality worked.

    Luther’s answer altered the structure of the Christian life. He argued that a person was justified by God’s grace through faith, not by accumulating merit. Scripture, not the pope or accumulated tradition, was the final authority against which doctrine had to be judged. Baptism and the shared priesthood of believers gave ordinary Christians a spiritual standing that did not depend on membership in a separate religious caste. Monastic vows did not create a higher class of Christian. Ordinary work performed in faith could be a vocation.

    Each claim answered a theological problem. Together, they changed where a person stood in the universe.

    Within Lutheran and other Protestant accounts, a monk or nun was not necessarily closer to God than a parent, farmer, merchant, or servant. Priests remained important, but no longer belonged to a spiritually superior estate. Clergy could marry. Care for the dead changed when purgatory and Masses for souls were rejected. Images that had mediated sacred presence could be condemned as idols.

    A monk who had understood his vows as a path to holiness could discover that the path itself was a mistake. A nun who had been given to a convent by her family could be told that leaving, marrying, and raising children might be more faithful than remaining. A priest could become a husband and father. A family that had endowed Masses for its dead could learn that those Masses accomplished nothing. A craftsperson could hear that ordinary labor was a calling from God, while a student preparing for an ecclesiastical career could watch that entire career structure collapse.

    This was not liberation in one clean direction. It was disorientation.

    In Wittenberg, the changes moved so quickly that some students questioned whether their education had any point. The attack on private Masses threatened clerical livelihoods. When monasteries closed, land changed hands, men and women had to find new places in households and local economies, and poor relief had to be reorganized. When reformers removed images, they did not merely redecorate churches. They stripped away objects through which generations had understood sacred history and encountered the holy.45

    Western and central Europe did not move together from one worldview to another. It fractured.

    Catholics, Lutherans, Reformed Protestants, Anabaptists, and others offered incompatible accounts of the Eucharist, baptism, salvation, church government, and political obedience. Families divided. Refugees crossed borders. Rulers and churches built rival settlements through catechisms, schools, law, discipline, and force. Religious fracture became entangled with political revolt, state formation, persecution, and war. Catholic reformers also clarified doctrine, built institutions, and renewed their own account of authority.5

    The world had not become meaningless. It had become a place in which the old sources of meaning no longer settled the most important questions.

    That is the change I want us to see.

    The printing press helped claims move faster and farther. It made controversy cheaper to reproduce and harder to contain. But the press was not the thing that caused a priest to marry, a family to stop paying for Masses for the dead, a ruler to seize a monastery, or a worshipper to stare at an empty space where a saint had stood.

    The Reformation did those things because it changed what the world meant.

    The world AI found

    The modern world is not united by one church, one theology, or one account of salvation. We disagree about religion, morality, politics, human nature, and almost everything else.

    Yet our institutions still depend on a mostly unspoken account of the person.

    We use human performance to distribute income, status, opportunity, and recognition. Schools reward writing, reasoning, memory, and problem solving. Professions issue credentials meant to prove knowledge and judgment. Employers pay more for abilities that are difficult to acquire and scarce in the labor market. People build identities around being able to do something that someone else needs.

    Ask someone what they do, and the answer will usually be a job.

    That is not an accident. For many people, work provides income, but it also provides structure, community, status, competence, and a way to explain one’s contribution. Becoming good at difficult work changes a person. The failures, repetitions, corrections, mentors, and unusual cases become part of how that person sees the world.

    This account of human value has always been morally incomplete. A person is not worth more because that person writes better, calculates faster, remembers more, or earns a higher salary. Still, our schools, firms, professions, and labor markets regularly behave as though useful performance is evidence of both economic and personal value.

    Then a machine begins producing the performance.

    That is the disruption.

    The most important thing about generative AI is not that it can make a document, image, plan, diagnosis, or recommendation more quickly. It is that those outputs often functioned as evidence of a human capacity. A finished essay implied that a student had read and synthesized. A legal analysis implied that a lawyer had interpreted. A diagnosis implied that a clinician had reasoned. A strategy implied that a leader had decided. A painting implied that an artist had imagined and made.

    Now the artifact can appear without proving what we thought it proved.

    That is destabilizing enough. But the fear goes further. If a machine can produce every economically valuable performance better than the people who once produced it, what are the people for? What is their purpose? Where do they find the recognition that tells them they matter? What is the meaning of a life that appears to be needed by no one?

    AI did not invent the weakness in our assumptions. It exposed how much meaning we had asked work and performance to carry.

    It does not matter yet whether the fear is right

    There is an obvious objection to this argument.

    AI cannot actually do all the things people fear it will do. It makes elementary mistakes. It invents facts. It often needs a human to define the problem, gather the right information, recognize an error, and take responsibility for the result. A strong performance on a benchmark does not mean a system can replace a person in the messy conditions of a real job.

    All of that is true.

    It is also beside the point I am making.

    I am not arguing that AI will eliminate every profession or that a machine is already more valuable than a person. I am arguing that a large number of people now fear that their future usefulness is being placed in competition with a machine. Because our institutions have taught people to locate identity, security, and recognition in useful work, I think that fear can become a question about personal value.

    This is not a fringe anxiety. In 2025, Pew Research Center found that 52 percent of American workers were worried about AI’s future workplace impact, and 32 percent expected it to leave them with fewer opportunities. In a separate survey, 64 percent of American adults expected AI to mean fewer jobs over the next 20 years. Across 31 countries, Microsoft and LinkedIn found that 45 percent of knowledge workers worried AI would replace their job.7910

    The fear reaches the next generation. In a 2026 study, Common Sense Media found that 57 percent of parents with children under 18 believed AI would make it harder for their children to find jobs. Nearly half of the young people surveyed worried about AI’s effect on their economic future, 49 percent thought it would make finding a job harder for them personally, and 59 percent thought people like them would have a harder time.11

    Those surveys do not show that AI will cause mass unemployment. They do not show that workers believe their lives are literally worth less. They establish something important here: people already believe the ground is moving beneath them.

    The anticipation becomes part of the event.

    So, what happens when you believe there may be no job for you to get? What do you study? Do you borrow money for a degree? Do you spend years mastering a profession that may not want beginners by the time you arrive? Do you save for a future you cannot picture? Do you have children when you are not sure how they will support themselves or where they will find a place to contribute?

    These questions can change decisions before any forecast is proved. In Deloitte’s 2025 survey of more than 23,000 Gen Z and millennial respondents across 44 countries, more than six in ten of the respondents who used generative AI worried that it would eliminate jobs and said the concern was motivating them to seek work they considered safer from disruption.12

    The International Labour Organization offers an important counterweight. It estimates that one in four jobs worldwide has some exposure to generative AI, but says transformation is more likely than full replacement. Exposure is not disappearance. A task is not a job, and a benchmark is not a workplace.6

    Still, the distinction between transformation and replacement does not settle the question of meaning. An OECD survey found that most workers using AI thought it complemented their abilities, while about half of the users in finance and almost half in manufacturing also believed it had made some of their own skills less valuable.8

    Think about that. A person can become more productive and feel less valuable at the same time.

    The fear is already entangled with people’s sense that they matter. In an American Psychological Association survey, workers worried that AI would make their duties obsolete were substantially more likely than other workers to say they did not matter to their employer or coworkers. The survey cannot prove that AI anxiety caused those feelings. It does show that fear of obsolescence and felt insignificance are arriving together.13

    This is how a worldview begins to shift. The new account does not have to be true, complete, or stable. It only has to make the old account stop feeling certain.

    When work stops explaining our place

    Now imagine believing that the noun is about to disappear.

    You do not have to lose your job for that belief to change you. A student can look at the field that once promised a future and wonder whether it is foolish to enter. A midcareer professional can look at years of accumulated skill and wonder whether the market will still recognize it. A parent can look at a child and wonder what preparation could possibly be enough. Someone choosing whether to start a family can wonder whether the next generation will have any economically useful place at all.

    The actual labor market may eventually prove some of those fears wrong. It may produce new roles, new industries, and forms of work we cannot yet name. But a worldview is not only a description of what is objectively true. It is the set of assumptions through which people decide what is worth doing.

    If I believe no employer will need my skill, the belief changes whether I develop it. If I believe entry-level work will vanish, the belief changes whether I pursue the profession. If I believe my children will enter a world in which machines outperform them at every economically valuable task, the belief changes how I imagine their future.

    That is why the anticipation matters so much.

    For many people, a job has been the most ordinary proof that there is a place for them. Someone needs what I can do. Someone will exchange part of the world’s resources for my contribution. Other people can describe me through the role, and I can describe myself through it.

    When that proof becomes uncertain, the question is larger than, “How will I earn money?”

    It becomes, “Where am I needed?”

    The Reformation created a similarly profound disruption in vocation. Before it, monks, nuns, and priests occupied a religious estate set apart from ordinary household and economic life. Protestant reformers attacked that hierarchy. A monastery was not necessarily a place of higher holiness. Marriage, parenting, civic office, farming, craft, and household labor could all be callings in which a person served God and neighbor.

    That change supplied one influential inheritance for the modern idea that ordinary work can express a calling. The later history is long and complicated, and our current habit of identifying ourselves with jobs cannot be credited to the Reformation alone. But the connection between work, identity, contribution, and purpose remains powerful. We want work to mean something because we want our lives to mean something.

    AI presses directly on that connection.

    The important issue here is not whether AI will actually eliminate a particular job. It is what happens when a teacher, programmer, designer, accountant, lawyer, doctor, manager, or writer begins to believe the activity through which that person contributed will no longer require a person.

    The question changes from, “How will I do my work?” to, “Why would anyone need me to do it?”

    That is the difference between a technological adjustment and a worldview-changing event. A new tool changes the method. The belief that human contribution itself is becoming unnecessary changes the person who imagined having a place in the world.

    It is not only what AI is capable of doing that matters. It is what people think its capabilities mean about them.

    What is a person worth when performance is no longer unique?

    This is where the analogy reaches its deepest point.

    The Reformation forced people to ask how grace, faith, sacraments, penance, merit, and the Church’s mediation fit together in the relationship between a human being and God. What made one life holy and another ordinary? Who could speak with spiritual authority? What did freedom mean, and what obligations remained?

    AI presses a different question, but one at a similar depth: why does a person matter?

    For a long time, we have answered partly by pointing to abilities. Humans reason. Humans use language. Humans create art. Humans solve problems. Humans understand one another. Humans exercise judgment.

    But even if a person had no grand theory of human uniqueness, there was usually a simpler answer available: I can do something that other people value.

    For many people, some role, task, trade, service, form of care, or exercise of judgment offered a way to contribute. The work might not be glamorous or deeply fulfilling. It might even be miserable. Still, being needed offered a basic form of recognition. There was a place for me because there was something I could do.

    Now a system can produce behavior associated with many of those abilities.

    We can respond by moving the boundary. Perhaps humans reason better in unusual situations. Perhaps humans possess consciousness, embodiment, emotion, moral responsibility, relationships, or a lived history that a machine lacks. Those differences may be real and essential.

    But notice what happens if our defense of human value remains a performance contest.

    If people matter because they write better, then an improvement in machine writing weakens the argument. If people matter because they diagnose more accurately, the argument becomes vulnerable to the next medical benchmark. If people matter because they create beautiful images, every advance in image generation appears to subtract from human uniqueness.

    That should make us question the argument, not the people.

    A child does not have to outperform a model to possess dignity. A person with dementia does not lose value as memory fails. A disabled person is not less human because a machine can perform an activity that person cannot. A worker’s worth cannot be identical to the market scarcity of a skill.

    AI is not making human life less valuable. It is exposing how often we confused value with superiority, dignity with productivity, and meaning with economic usefulness.

    That could be a healthy correction.

    It could also be brutally destabilizing in societies that distribute income, status, health, housing, and opportunity according to market value. Telling people that their dignity is unconditional does not pay a mortgage when an employer has decided their skill is no longer scarce.

    The economic and existential questions therefore cannot be separated.

    If work is one of the main places people experience contribution, and if our institutions treat productive output as the basis for security and respect, AI can create a crisis of meaning even while increasing total wealth. A society can become more productive while many of its members feel less necessary.

    The problem is not simply that a machine might become more like a person.

    The problem is that we built a world in which people were valued as imperfect machines.

    AI makes that world harder to defend.

    If a machine can eventually do all economically valuable work better than all of us, the fear is not merely that we will lose our salaries. The fear is that we will lose the most ordinary evidence that somebody needs us. What is my value then? What is my purpose? What is a life for when its contribution appears unnecessary? Those questions may rest on a false account of human worth, but that does not make them less real to the person asking.

    A worldview is not replaced by proving that the old one has a flaw. It is replaced when people and institutions learn to live inside another account of who they are.

    Where the comparison stops

    A serious analogy has to tell us where it fails.

    The Reformation was not a technology. It was a collection of religious, political, economic, and social movements within Latin Christendom. It unfolded across generations through churches, rulers, cities, families, wars, markets, and competing doctrines. AI is a technology being deployed around the world in societies with very different histories and accounts of human meaning.

    I am not arguing that a model company is a new church, a programmer is a new Luther, or a chatbot is a religion.

    Nor am I arguing that radio, electricity, industrialization, the internet, or social media left human meaning untouched. They had enormous effects on human life and identity. But they primarily transformed our how: how we moved, worked, communicated, produced, consumed, and organized daily life.

    AI can press more directly on our why. Why am I needed? Why does my work matter? Why should I develop an ability a machine may soon perform better? What gives a person purpose when useful performance is no longer distinctly human? The other technologies changed the conditions in which we pursued meaning. AI is beginning to make people question some of the sources from which they drew meaning in the first place.

    The analogy is not between a model and Luther. It is between two periods in which an inherited account of a person’s place in the world stopped settling the most important questions.

    The work of making meaning

    The first thing we have to do is understand what kind of change this is.

    If we treat AI as another technology, we will respond with the familiar questions. How do I use it? How do I work faster? Which skills should I learn? Which jobs will grow? Which rules should govern it?

    Those are useful questions. They are questions about how.

    They do not answer the question AI has placed underneath them: what really is my worth?

    The Reformation matters as an analogy because it shows what happens when a civilization’s inherited answer to a question like that stops feeling certain. People do not simply update a belief and continue living as before. They reinterpret their past. They reconsider their obligations. They make different decisions about work, family, authority, education, community, and the future. The disruption travels outward from an altered account of who a person is and what a life is for.

    That is already the kind of pressure AI is creating.

    The parent wondering whether a child will ever find work is not merely planning for a new labor market. The parent is trying to imagine whether the child will have a recognized place in the world. The professional afraid that years of expertise will become worthless is not merely calculating future income. The professional is asking whether the life spent developing that expertise still adds up to something. The young person looking at a machine that can write, code, draw, diagnose, and advise is not only choosing a major. That person is trying to identify a form of contribution that will still prove there was a reason to develop into someone.

    We should not dismiss those fears by insisting that AI will create new jobs. It may. We should not intensify them by pretending we know that human labor will disappear. We do not.

    The deeper problem is that both answers leave the same assumption untouched: a person’s worth depends on remaining economically useful.

    As long as that is the answer, every improvement in AI will feel like a reduction in human value. Every new benchmark will move the boundary behind which we try to protect our importance. We will say that machines can write but cannot reason, then that they can reason but cannot judge, then that they can judge but cannot care. If our worth always rests on the next task a machine cannot perform, we have made human value contingent on the machine’s limitations.

    That is not a stable place to stand.

    We have to put the more difficult question at the forefront: what makes a human life valuable even when that life is not the most efficient way to produce an output?

    Answering it will require more than reassuring slogans. We can say that every person has dignity, that relationships matter, that care matters, that experience matters, and that responsibility matters. But we also have to ask whether we believe those things deeply enough to live by them when productivity points in another direction.

    This is hard work because the old account is built into us.

    Return one last time to Wittenberg.

    The people at Karlstadt’s service had accepted enough of the new theology to break rules that had ordered Christian practice for generations. Yet when the wafer fell, the old world was still present in their hesitation. Their explicit beliefs had changed before their embodied understanding of reality had changed.

    We can see the same divide in ourselves.

    Most of us would reject the claim that a person’s worth equals a salary, a title, or the scarcity of a skill. We know that a child matters before the child can work. We know that an older person does not become worthless upon retirement. We know that illness, disability, unemployment, or dependence does not erase someone’s humanity.

    Yet when a machine performs a valued skill better or faster, many of us feel the threat personally. We do not experience it merely as a new method. We experience it as evidence that we may be worth less.

    Our stated belief is that human value exceeds useful performance. Our reaction reveals how much of the old worldview remains in the body.

    That is why the earlier point about worldviews matters so much. It is not enough to say the old account of our worth was flawed. We have to learn to live inside another account of who we are.

    If we can answer the question of human worth in a way that survives being outperformed, we do not have to treat every advance in AI as evidence of our own disappearance. We may still have serious reasons to worry about jobs, income, power, and inequality. But we will not have to confuse the loss of a task with the loss of a self.

    If we cannot answer it, we will keep defending our value through whatever work machines have not yet mastered. That territory may continue to shrink. Long before every job is actually replaced, we may experience ourselves as replaceable altogether.

    And then the question, “What is the point of life?” will no longer sound rhetorical.

    That is why the printing press comparison is too small.

    The printing press changed how ideas moved. Radio changed how voices traveled. Electricity changed how power could be used. The internet changed how information could be reached. Social media changed how people published and gathered attention.

    AI is changing how people understand their own purpose, value, and place in the world.

    It is changing the why.

    AI is not just another technology.

    It is creating worldview-shattering pressure, and we need to understand it as such.

    Notes and sources

    1. Lyndal Roper, Martin Luther: Renegade and Prophet (Random House, 2017), chapter 10, especially pp. 218–224 and 235. Roper describes Karlstadt’s Christmas 1521 service, its theological and political context, the dropped wafers, and the communicants’ refusal to touch them. Roper also notes that the brandy story came through hostile reporting and was later repeated by Luther.
    2. Diarmaid MacCulloch, The Reformation: A History (Penguin, 2005), introduction and chapter 1, especially “Seeing Salvation in Church” and “The First Pillar: The Mass and Purgatory.” MacCulloch reconstructs the late-medieval Church as a vigorous system in which the physical and spiritual, the living and dead, and everyday and eternal life were joined.
    3. Roper, Martin Luther, introduction, especially pp. 1–6, on the social, sacramental, political, and financial system surrounding the indulgence campaign. See also MacCulloch, The Reformation, chapter 3.
    4. Roper, Martin Luther, chapters 9–10, especially pp. 218–230, on the Wittenberg reforms, the collapse in university enrollment, threats to clerical careers, changes to poor relief, iconoclasm, and the struggle over secular authority.
    5. MacCulloch, The Reformation, introduction and chapters 4, 14, and 16, on uncontrolled early reform, the Peasants’ War, confessionalization, institutions, family, vocation, and everyday life. See also Roper, Martin Luther, chapters 12–13 and 16.
    6. International Labour Organization and NASK, “Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure” (2025). The report estimates that one in four jobs worldwide has some exposure to generative AI while emphasizing that transformation is more likely than full replacement.
    7. Luona Lin and Kim Parker, “U.S. Workers Are More Worried Than Hopeful About Future AI Use in the Workplace,” Pew Research Center, February 25, 2025.
    8. OECD, “The Impact of AI on the Workplace: Main Findings from the OECD AI Surveys of Employers and Workers” (2023). The surveys covered more than 5,000 workers and 2,000 employers in finance and manufacturing across seven countries.
    9. Pew Research Center, “How the U.S. Public and AI Experts View Artificial Intelligence” (April 3, 2025). The survey included 5,410 U.S. adults and a separate sample of 1,013 AI experts.
    10. Microsoft and LinkedIn, “AI at Work Is Here. Now Comes the Hard Part,” Work Trend Index Annual Report (May 8, 2024). The findings draw on a survey of 31,000 knowledge workers across 31 countries.
    11. Common Sense Media, “Generation AI: What Kids and Families Think About AI” (March 2026). The national U.S. study surveyed parents and young people ages 12 to 17 about AI, education, employment, and the future.
    12. Deloitte, “2025 Gen Z and Millennial Survey” (May 14, 2025). The survey included 23,482 respondents across 44 countries.
    13. American Psychological Association, “2023 Work in America Survey: Artificial Intelligence, Monitoring Technology, and Psychological Well-Being” (2023). The association between obsolescence worry and feeling insignificant at work is correlational.
  • When Success Makes a Soccer Club Weaker

    When Success Makes a Soccer Club Weaker

    What happens when a small youth soccer club develops a team that becomes better than the supposedly elite clubs around it?

    In an open system, the team would earn stronger competition and the club would gain status. In much of American youth soccer, there is no automatic path upward. The club’s best players are more likely to leave for organizations that already possess the right league badge. The original club can point to those departures as evidence that its coaches did good work, but the team that produced the evidence has been dismantled.

    Success can make the institution that created it weaker.

    That paradox reveals an information problem disguised as a competition problem. Parents are buying player development they cannot directly inspect, so they rely on league badges, wins, roster placement, facilities, and social proof. Then, when a smaller club produces convincing evidence of development, the system can move that evidence to organizations whose status has already been established.

    A system that cannot reliably elevate good development or expose poor development cannot tell parents which is which. Eventually, the appearance of development becomes easier to sell than development itself.

    This was the tension I kept hearing in my second interview with Rory O’Neill on The Unfolding Thought Podcast. Rory has spent years coaching and building youth soccer programs. Much of our conversation concerned closed leagues, pay-to-play, promotion and relegation, and the incentives around player movement. Underneath those issues is a harder question: how can a market reward good development if the people buying it cannot confidently recognize it?

    The person paying and the person developing are not the same

    In a simple purchase, one person may play every important role. I buy a sandwich, eat it, decide whether it was good, choose whether to return, and suffer the consequences if it makes me sick.

    Youth sports divide those roles among several people:

    • The parent pays.
    • The child receives the coaching.
    • The coach claims the expertise to evaluate development.
    • The parent usually decides whether the family stays or leaves.
    • The child bears most of the long-term consequences.

    Those forms of power can point in different directions. A child may need harder competition, less playing time, a different position, more unstructured practice, or an honest explanation that progress has stalled. None of those experiences is guaranteed to make the payer happy today.

    Calling the parent “the customer” is commercially accurate and developmentally incomplete. Calling the child “the customer” sounds principled but ignores who controls the revenue. The mistake is assuming that one word can describe a relationship in which payment, benefit, expertise, choice, and risk are divided.

    When satisfaction is visible and development is not, the system learns to sell satisfaction.

    Parents are buying something they cannot easily inspect

    Economists describe some expert services as credence services. Even after buying them, the customer may not be able to determine whether the right service was provided. Most patients cannot independently evaluate a medical diagnosis. Most car owners cannot inspect a transmission repair. Most parents cannot watch a practice and determine whether the coach made the right tradeoffs for a player’s development over several years.

    Youth development is especially difficult to judge because the result is partly counterfactual. The relevant question is not simply, “Is this player better than last year?” A growing child receiving almost any regular practice may improve. The harder question is, “How much better would this child have become in a different environment?” Families never get to observe both futures.

    When buyers cannot inspect the underlying quality, they look for signals. A winning record is a signal. A famous coach is a signal. Travel is a signal. Facilities are a signal. Being selected for an “elite” roster is a particularly powerful signal because it tells the parent that another authority has already evaluated the child.

    Signals are not useless. A strong league may provide better competition. A selective roster may contain better players. Winning may reflect good coaching. The danger comes when a signal becomes easier to produce and sell than the result it is supposed to represent.

    That distinction matters in a closed system. MLS NEXT membership is awarded through an application and evaluation process that considers philosophy, governance, coaching, player development history, affordability, geography, and other factors. Those are reasonable things to examine. But membership is still a selected certification, not a competitive rank that every club can continuously earn on the field. To a parent, the badge can therefore look like objective proof even though the route to obtaining it is more complicated.

    The short feedback loop usually wins

    A player’s development may take ten years. A club’s renewal decision arrives every season. A parent’s frustration can arrive after one lineup.

    The shorter loop produces louder information. The club sees a complaint, a departure, or an unpaid invoice immediately. It may not know for years whether a technically gifted 12-year-old learned to solve problems, whether a late-maturing player received enough patience, or whether a confident 15-year-old learned to accept responsibility.

    Organizations tend to manage what they can observe. Research on performance measurement and incentives has long warned that measurable proxies can distort behavior when they are mistaken for the harder-to-measure goal. In youth soccer, renewals, wins, league status, and roster size are easy to count. Development is not.

    This does not require bad people. A caring coach can know that a player needs a difficult truth. A well-intentioned director can know that a team should emphasize learning rather than a weekend result. But if telling the truth causes the family to leave, while reassurance protects the revenue that pays the coach, the business model has made honesty expensive.

    A coach can be serving the child and risking the customer at the same time.

    A more honest hierarchy would help, but it would not solve the whole problem

    Rory argues that promotion and relegation would make American soccer more meritocratic. A team that performs well could earn stronger competition. A club could not preserve status without repeatedly earning it through open competition simply because it already belonged to the right league.

    That would create useful information. Results would have consequences, and success could open a path that is currently controlled by membership decisions. In that sense, promotion and relegation is not just a sporting preference. It is a mechanism for testing claims.

    But a more objective team hierarchy is not the same as an objective development system. A club can win by recruiting the strongest current players rather than improving the players it has. It can favor early-maturing children, use conservative tactics, narrow positions, and reduce experimentation. A standings table can tell us which team won. It cannot tell us how much each child learned.

    The United States Olympic and Paralympic Committee’s American Development Model emphasizes age-appropriate development, access, quality coaching, fun, and attention to skill and effort. Those goals remind us that competitive results are one signal among several. Replacing a league badge with a winning record would improve one feedback loop while leaving the larger measurement problem intact.

    Success can make the club that produced it weaker

    Consider a small club that develops an unusually strong team. If that team cannot earn access to a higher level of competition, its best players may leave for clubs that already possess the desired badge. The original club can point to those departures as evidence that its coaches did good work, but the team that produced the evidence has been dismantled.

    Success has made the institution that created it weaker.

    That is more than an issue of fairness. It is a loss of information. Parents evaluating the original club no longer see the strong team. They see the remaining roster and the higher-status clubs that absorbed its players. The visible proof migrates away from the people who created it.

    There are attempts to address this. The MLS NEXT Development Grant Program can reward a qualifying elite academy when a player reaches specified professional milestones. That is meaningful progress, but eligibility is narrow and the grant goes to the immediately preceding qualifying academy. Many origin clubs and earlier coaches remain outside the mechanism.

    International soccer offers a broader idea. FIFA’s Clearing House distributes training compensation and solidarity contributions to clubs involved in a player’s development. The details are complex, and no payment system perfectly identifies causal contribution. The important principle is that development should leave some value behind for the institution that helped create it.

    If success causes your best evidence to leave, the system is not rewarding development. It is consuming it.

    Development needs a better scoreboard

    No single measure will solve this. That is the point. When the goal is complex, a responsible system uses several imperfect signals and makes their limitations visible.

    A club that claims to develop players should be able to show more than trophies and placements. It should be able to explain what it is trying to develop, how coaches assess progress, and what families should expect when the child’s needs conflict with the team’s short-term result.

    • Are individual goals documented and revisited over time?
    • Do assessments include technical, tactical, physical, and psychological development rather than one coach’s overall impression?
    • Can another qualified observer review a player’s progress?
    • Do players receive meaningful opportunities to apply what they are learning?
    • Does the club track voluntary retention, player enjoyment, affordability, injuries, and burnout alongside wins?
    • When a player advances elsewhere, does the originating club receive financial or reputational credit?
    • Are families told clearly that development does not guarantee a roster label, starting role, scholarship, or professional future?

    FIFA’s talent-identification guidance calls for a clear philosophy, defined player profiles, comprehensive scouting environments, player observation, data analysis, structured selection, and a process that can operate over the long term. A child cannot be reduced to one tryout, one coach, or one team result. Neither can the quality of the environment developing that child.

    Make the truth less expensive

    Transparency will not remove conflict. It can make conflict more honest.

    Before a season begins, clubs can separate the development promise from the status promise. They can explain how playing time is decided, what “elite” means, what evidence coaches use, and how a family can appeal or seek an independent view. They can make it easier for a child to move when another environment would be better. They can reward coaches for long-term progress and candor, not only wins and renewals.

    Parents also have a role. If we say we want development but punish every decision that makes our child uncomfortable, the club learns what we actually value. If we treat a badge as proof, we help turn the badge into the product. If we demand guarantees that no honest coach can make, reassurance will eventually displace judgment.

    The goal is not to make parents passive. It is to give them better information and clearer expectations so that dissatisfaction can reveal a real problem rather than merely the distance between a development process and an imagined outcome.

    This is not only a youth sports problem

    The same information problem appears in schools, healthcare, consulting, nonprofits, elder care, and business services. One person may pay, another may use the service, a third may evaluate quality, and the consequences may arrive after the contract ends.

    Customer satisfaction matters in all of those settings. It can tell us whether the payer received the experience they expected. It cannot, by itself, tell us whether the institution fulfilled its purpose. Leaders need to ask who pays, who benefits, who can judge quality, who decides whether the relationship continues, and who bears the cost if it fails. If the answers name different people, the most visible feedback is not necessarily the most important.

    American youth soccer does not lack people who care about children. It lacks a reliable way to keep care, truth, revenue, and development pointing in the same direction. Until development becomes more visible and more valuable to the institution producing it, status will remain easier to market than progress.

    The question is not whether American youth soccer has coaches capable of developing players. It is whether the system can recognize their work before success dismantles the proof.

    Listen and read further

    Rory O’Neill and Eric Pratum on The Unfolding Thought Podcast.
    Listen to Rory O’Neill on The Unfolding Thought Podcast.
  • When the Process Outlives the Problem It Was Built to Solve

    When the Process Outlives the Problem It Was Built to Solve

    An institution can be orderly, disciplined, and increasingly ineffective at the same time.

    That kind of failure is hard to see because it still looks like competence.

    The weekly report arrives on time. Every project clears the required stage gate. The dashboard is green. The audit finds no missing fields. Yet customers are leaving, quality is slipping, decisions take longer, and the people closest to the work have learned that raising an anomaly creates more trouble than ignoring it.

    Nothing is obviously broken because the organization has become excellent at demonstrating fidelity to its process. The difficulty is that fidelity to process and fidelity to purpose are not the same thing.

    That distinction is what I kept returning to after my conversation with Eliot Frick on The Unfolding Thought Podcast. Frick makes a much larger philosophical argument about whether modernity has entered the final stage of its life. His description of late-stage systems is immediately recognizable in organizations.

    A system begins with generative power. It solves problems that could not previously be solved. Its methods become credible because they work. Over time, however, the methods become inseparable from the system’s identity. When results deteriorate, the system rarely concludes that its operating assumptions may be exhausted. It concludes that people are no longer following them faithfully enough.

    So it adds oversight, tightens compliance, and treats deviation as the cause of decline. The process that once produced the outcome becomes the ritual through which the organization proves it still deserves to exist.

    A process is a memory of a problem

    Most recurring processes began for a reason. Someone shipped defective work, exposed the company to risk, made an expensive decision without enough evidence, or forced other people to reconstruct information that should have been recorded. A checklist, review, approval, or report was created to keep that failure from recurring.

    When the process works, the original problem becomes less visible. New employees encounter the solution without experiencing the conditions that made it necessary. They know the form must be completed but not what judgment the form was meant to improve. They know who must approve a decision but not what uncertainty that approval was supposed to reduce.

    The process is therefore a kind of organizational memory. It preserves an answer after the question has faded.

    That can be useful. We do not want every generation of employees to rediscover fire safety or financial controls from first principles. But a memory becomes dangerous when the organization cannot distinguish the enduring purpose from the historical method. Conditions change while the ritual remains. Eventually, people measure whether the process occurred because they have lost the ability to measure whether it still helped.

    Success teaches a system what to stop noticing

    Every successful institution develops an operating grammar. It creates categories, incentives, reporting systems, professional language, and approved ways of reasoning. This grammar lets large groups coordinate. It also makes the organization increasingly good at recognizing what it already knows how to see.

    James March described a related tension as the difference between exploiting old certainties and exploring new possibilities. Exploitation improves what the organization already knows how to do. Exploration searches for something better but produces uncertain returns. March’s warning was that adaptive systems often refine exploitation more quickly than exploration. That can make them effective in the short run and self-destructive over time.

    The problem is not that managers foolishly choose the old over the new. The old process comes with evidence, owners, budgets, benchmarks, and political support. The alternative begins as a question. One side can produce a forecast. The other can only promise learning.

    The imbalance compounds. The more an organization invests in a process, the more careers, systems, and explanations depend on that process remaining legitimate. Evidence that fits the current model is easy to absorb. Evidence that challenges the model arrives looking incomplete, undisciplined, or irrelevant.

    A failing institution often becomes more faithful to its process as it becomes less capable of producing its purpose.

    Threat makes the rulebook harder

    Declining results ought to create curiosity. In practice, they often create rigidity.

    Barry Staw, Lance Sandelands, and Jane Dutton’s work on threat rigidity describes two common responses to adversity: information processing narrows and control constricts. Organizations rely more heavily on familiar knowledge, reduce the number of voices involved, centralize authority, and formalize procedure.

    Those responses are understandable. A threat creates urgency, and coordination can matter more during an immediate crisis. The problem comes when a short-term crisis response becomes the operating model for a system whose assumptions are failing. The organization reduces variation at precisely the moment it most needs alternatives.

    This creates a cruel feedback loop. The system produces weaker results. Leadership tightens the system to protect performance. Tighter control suppresses dissent and experimentation. The organization receives less information about why the system is failing. Its leaders become even more convinced that inconsistent execution is the problem.

    People who question the process are then easy to cast as undisciplined. Yet they may be carrying the information the process was designed to exclude.

    Collapse stories can be another form of loyalty

    Frick makes a surprising argument about stories of collapse. We assume that someone predicting the end of a system has escaped its influence. Often the opposite is true.

    The defender says the institution must be saved. The critic says it must be destroyed. Both keep the institution at the center of the imagination. The defender uses its categories to explain what must continue. The critic uses the same categories to explain what must end. Neither has necessarily described what could make the old conflict less important.

    This pattern appears in organizations whenever two factions fight over control of a process whose usefulness neither side is examining. One department wants stricter enforcement. Another wants the process abolished. Both assume the available choices are compliance or rebellion.

    The opposite of defending a failing system is not attacking it. Both can keep the system at the center.

    A more useful question is what problem the process was built to solve and whether that problem still exists in the same form. If it does, perhaps the method needs repair. If it does not, the fight over the method may be consuming attention that belongs somewhere else.

    A new system may not win the old argument

    Thomas Kuhn’s account of scientific revolutions is helpful here. Transformative ideas do not always emerge by accumulating better answers inside the accepted model. Anomalies build until a different framework can organize them.

    A new framework may not defeat the old one by its own measures. It can change which observations matter, which problems deserve attention, and what counts as an explanation. Questions that once felt decisive can become smaller or disappear.

    Organizations routinely make this transition harder than it needs to be by requiring every experiment to justify itself with the current system’s metrics. But those metrics contain assumptions about value, time, quality, and risk. An idea that tests the assumptions cannot always prove itself using measures designed to preserve them.

    This does not mean experiments should escape accountability. It means their first obligation may be to produce information rather than scale, efficiency, or immediate financial return. Leaders need to know what the experiment is trying to learn and what evidence would cause it to stop. That is different from demanding that it look like a small version of the established business.

    Leadership is the preservation of options

    Frick uses the word “aperture” for a protected opening through which unfamiliar possibilities can develop. The metaphor matters because most new ideas do not begin with enough power to survive the full force of an established institution.

    A leader does not need to believe every unconventional proposal. Most will be incomplete, and many will fail. Leadership requires preventing the current operating system from eliminating all unfamiliar ideas before any can produce evidence.

    Amy Edmondson’s research on psychological safety helps explain one condition for such an opening. Teams learn when people believe they can take interpersonal risks. That does not mean conflict disappears. It means uncertainty, error, and disagreement can enter the conversation without immediately becoming evidence that someone does not belong.

    Authenticity matters too. Research by Charlan Nemeth, Keith Brown, and John Rogers found that a genuinely held minority position produced better quantity and quality of solutions than several forms of assigned devil’s advocacy. An organization does not receive the full benefit of dissent by appointing someone to perform disagreement inside a meeting whose real boundaries remain untouched.

    Leadership does not require knowing what comes next. It requires refusing to let the present eliminate every alternative.

    What protecting an aperture looks like

    Protected exploration does not have to mean an innovation lab separated from the real work. It can begin with a few operating choices:

    • Separate delivery work from exploratory work so the two are not judged by identical expectations.
    • Give small experiments explicit sponsors, modest budgets, and expiration dates.
    • Ask which measures reflect the purpose and which merely prove compliance.
    • Record anomalies before explaining them away.
    • Invite authentic dissent from people who actually hold a different view.
    • Require experiments to produce learning before requiring them to produce scale.
    • Periodically ask what problem each recurring process still solves.
    • Retire rituals whose connection to outcomes can no longer be demonstrated.

    These practices will not reveal the next paradigm on command. That is not the promise. Their value is that they preserve variation long enough for the organization to learn from it.

    Jim Dator’s four generic futures include continuation, collapse, discipline, and transformation. Frick’s argument rearranges that sequence, but the categories remain useful. Organizations are usually comfortable planning for continuation. They can imagine collapse because fear supplies the story. They understand discipline because tightening control feels actionable.

    Transformation is harder because it cannot be fully described in the language of the system it may replace.

    The practical question is therefore not whether modernity, an industry, or a company is truly at the end of its life. The better question is diagnostic: are our institutions still producing results, or are they spending more of their energy demonstrating loyalty to the way those results used to be produced?

    A process deserves protection when it remains connected to purpose. When that connection is gone, enforcing the process more intensely will not restore it. Leadership begins by noticing the difference and preserving enough room for another possibility to become visible.

    Listen and read further

    Eric Pratum and Eliot Frick on The Unfolding Thought Podcast.
    Listen to Eliot Frick on The Unfolding Thought Podcast.
  • Blame Is What Organizations Use Instead of Learning

    Blame Is What Organizations Use Instead of Learning

    A project misses its deadline. A customer leaves. A machine fails. A campaign spends the budget and produces almost nothing.

    The review begins with a reasonable question: What happened?

    But the question rarely remains open for long. Someone was careless. Someone did not communicate. Someone lacked urgency. Someone should have known better.

    Once the organization has a name, it also has a remedy. Give feedback. Add training. Put a note in the performance review. Replace the person if the failure was serious enough. The meeting ends with the satisfying feeling that accountability has occurred.

    Then a different person encounters the same incentives, the same missing information, the same overloaded process, and the same failure happens again.

    The organization did not solve the problem. It purchased narrative closure at the cost of understanding.

    In her episode of The Unfolding Thought Podcast, Factor.AI co-founder Lindsay McGregor describes what she calls the blame bias: our tendency to explain poor performance through the character of the person closest to the outcome, even when the surrounding system did more to produce it.

    That insight is often softened into a pleasant leadership slogan: blame the system, not the person. But the implication is more demanding than the slogan. System thinking does not remove accountability. It expands accountability beyond the person with the least power to change the conditions.

    Blame is what organizations use when they want the appearance of accountability without the work of learning.

    Blame compresses the causal field

    Every meaningful organizational outcome has more causes than can fit comfortably into a meeting.

    A missed deadline may involve a poor individual decision. It may also involve an unrealistic estimate, a sales promise made without delivery input, shifting priorities, a dependency no one owned, incentives that rewarded saying yes, and a reporting process that made trouble visible only after recovery was impossible.

    Blame compresses that causal field into a person. It converts a difficult investigation into a familiar moral story: a responsible person would have produced a different result.

    Social psychologist Lee Ross gave the fundamental attribution error its name in 1977. We tend to overestimate stable traits when explaining another person’s behavior and underestimate the situation in which the behavior occurred. In ordinary language, we see what someone did and quickly decide what kind of person would do it.

    Distance makes the story easier. An executive sees a careless operator. A person standing beside the machine sees the awkward control, the rushed handoff, the warning light everyone has learned to ignore, and the production target that makes stopping the line feel dangerous.

    The executive may have more authority and more data. The operator often has more causal knowledge.

    Blame gives an organization a culprit. Accountability gives it a next action.

    The same people can produce a different organization

    McGregor illustrates the power of context through NUMMI, the automobile plant General Motors and Toyota operated together in California.

    The plant’s previous workforce had been described as unreliable, antagonistic, and nearly impossible to manage. Toyota reopened the facility with many of the same workers but a different operating system. Employees were trained to identify problems, stop production, suggest improvements, test ideas, and treat quality as something they helped create rather than something management inspected after the fact.

    The people did not receive new personalities. The work gave different behaviors a reason to emerge.

    A California Management Review study of NUMMI describes how broad job classifications, teamwork, job rotation, employee involvement, and continuous improvement replaced direct supervision as the primary mechanism for performance. The point was not simply to be nicer to workers. It was to make their judgment part of the production system.

    W. Edwards Deming estimated from his experience that 94 percent of troubles and possibilities for improvement belonged to the system and were therefore management’s responsibility. The number should not be treated as a universal law. Its distribution of responsibility is the more important point.

    The higher a person sits in the organization, the more power that person usually has to shape goals, incentives, workload, information flow, staffing, tools, decision rights, and consequences. Yet performance conversations often place the greatest explanatory burden on the people with the least authority over those conditions.

    A system explanation does not say nobody is responsible. It asks whether responsibility has been assigned in proportion to power.

    The system is not an alibi

    There is an obvious objection. Some people lie, neglect their obligations, mistreat colleagues, or knowingly violate an important rule. A leader who explains every action through context can become as unserious as one who explains everything through character.

    System thinking should not erase agency. It should improve diagnosis.

    Four questions belong in the same review:

    • What choice did the person make?
    • What conditions made that choice more likely, more rational, or harder to detect?
    • Who had the authority to change those conditions before the event?
    • What individual and system changes will make recurrence less likely?

    An employee can be responsible for deception while a manager is responsible for a target that rewarded it. A manager can be responsible for ignoring a warning while an executive team is responsible for a culture in which delivering bad news ends careers. These responsibilities do not cancel one another.

    A system explanation does not erase individual responsibility. It reveals who had the power to prevent recurrence.

    Designing for the exception changes everyone’s work

    Bad actors create another system problem: they are memorable.

    McGregor describes the remote employee discovered to be working two full-time jobs. The violation is real. The leader’s anger is understandable. The danger comes next, when the organization redesigns work as though every employee were waiting for a chance to cheat.

    More monitoring appears. Decision rights narrow. Work becomes visible through activity rather than results. Approval steps multiply. The system may catch another offender. It also teaches conscientious employees that their judgment is not trusted and that appearing busy is safer than experimenting with a better way to work.

    Control is not free. It consumes attention, delays decisions, encourages performance theater, and transfers discretion away from the people closest to the problem.

    Research by Richard Ryan and Edward Deci on self-determination theory identifies autonomy, competence, and relatedness as conditions that support intrinsic motivation and healthy self-regulation. A control added for one exceptional case can weaken those conditions for everyone else.

    The design question is not whether to trust people blindly. It is how to contain misconduct without making the misconduct the model of human behavior on which the entire organization is built.

    When leaders design for the worst employee they can imagine, they often create the worst workplace everyone else has experienced.

    Blame destroys evidence

    The deepest cost of blame is not hurt feelings. It is lost information.

    James Reason distinguished the person and system approaches to error in a foundational article on human error. The person approach treats errors as products of inattention, carelessness, poor motivation, or moral weakness. Its remedies include retraining, new procedures, discipline, and shame. The system approach begins with the fact that people are fallible and asks how working conditions can prevent an error or limit its consequences.

    A blame-oriented review teaches employees to manage exposure. They disclose less, describe uncertainty more carefully, and wait until a problem is undeniable before attaching their names to it. The organization receives cleaner reports and worse knowledge.

    Amy Edmondson’s study of psychological safety and learning behavior found that teams where people felt safe taking interpersonal risks engaged more in behaviors such as discussing errors, seeking feedback, and experimenting. Learning behavior, in turn, helped explain performance.

    This does not mean every mistake should feel comfortable. It means the organization must be able to hear an accurate account before it decides what the account requires.

    A good metric can look like bad performance

    Systems also determine what counts as evidence.

    In the Toyota system McGregor describes, pulling the andon cord made a problem visible and could stop production. A manager optimizing only for short-term output might see fewer cord pulls as improvement. A manager responsible for learning might worry that fewer pulls meant employees had stopped surfacing problems.

    The same number can therefore describe two different organizations. One has fewer problems. The other has fewer reported problems.

    Most performance systems are much better at counting completed work than adaptive work. They measure units, calls, revenue, utilization, deadlines, and hours. They rarely measure useful questions, early warnings, experiments, prevented errors, or ideas that improved the process.

    When the visible score rewards output and the invisible score contains learning, people rationally protect output. Then leadership interprets the resulting silence as evidence that the system works.

    Accountability should end with a changed system

    A learning review should not begin by assuming innocence. It should not begin by assuming guilt either. It should begin by preserving the size of the question.

    Useful reviews ask:

    • What did the person know at the time, and what could that person reasonably have known?
    • What made the action seem sensible, necessary, or safe in that moment?
    • Would a capable peer in the same conditions have been likely to act differently?
    • Which target, workload, handoff, tool, incentive, or norm increased the probability of failure?
    • Where could an earlier signal have changed the outcome?
    • What individual choice requires correction?
    • What system change will make the better choice easier, earlier, or more visible?
    • Who owns that change, and how will the organization know it worked?

    If the review ends only with feedback for the employee, the organization has probably stopped one level too soon. If it ends only with a vague promise to improve the culture, it has stopped several levels too early.

    Accountability becomes real when it creates an obligation to repair. The employee may need to change a behavior. The manager may need to change the work. The executive may need to change the incentive that made the behavior predictable. Each owner should leave with an action proportionate to the power that owner had over the conditions.

    Learning requires a longer explanation

    Blame survives because it is emotionally efficient. It turns ambiguity into certainty, causation into character, and management failure into an employee problem.

    Learning is slower. It asks leaders to understand work they may have only seen through dashboards. It makes them examine controls they approved, incentives they praised, and constraints they never personally experienced. It may reveal that the person who made the visible mistake was adapting to a less visible mistake in the design.

    That is not softness. It is a more exacting form of accountability because it refuses to confuse punishment with prevention.

    Blame asks who deserves the pain. Accountability asks who owns the repair.

    Listen and read further

    Episode artwork for Lindsay McGregor’s appearance on The Unfolding Thought Podcast.
    Listen to Lindsay McGregor on The Unfolding Thought Podcast.